Why Al Horford is the Real X-Factor in Boston's Second-Round Matchup against Milwaukee

The veteran big man brings a considerable amount of experience and mental toughness to this series. But Horford has more - a lot more - to offer.

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Much of the talk heading into this Boston-Milwaukee series has focused on Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo and Boston’s Jayson Tatum, and understandably so.

Antetokounmpo is a two-time league MVP, a former Defensive Player of the Year and he’s the best player on the roster of the defending NBA champions.

Tatum is a 24-year-old who has already been named an NBA All-Star three times and is coming off a playoff series in which he outplayed Kevin Durant, badly, in leading the Celtics to an unexpected four-game sweep of Durant and the Brooklyn Nets.

Both will shine in this series for sure.

But there’s always an X-factor in a playoff series, someone who is poised to make a significant impact that could very well shift the tide of battle in one team’s favor.

For the Celtics, that player is Al Horford.

Boston split its four-game regular-season series with Milwaukee this year, but Horford only played against the Bucks once.

And that was during a 117-103 Celtics win on December 13, Boston’s largest margin of victory over the Bucks this season.

In that game, Horford had 10 points, five rebounds and four assists. But just as significant, Horford had a team-best plus/minus of plus-25.

And while Antetokounmpo had eight points (on 4-for-7 shooting) while being defended by Horford in that game, Antetokounmpo would finish with just 20 points in large part because Horford’s defense was part of a team effort that limited Antetokounmpo to just 14 shot attempts for the game.

Horford’s role will be particularly important, with him most likely to be the first Celtics player to spend time trying to defend Antetokounmpo.

But Horford’s impact goes beyond his defense.

Horford’s shooting touch from the perimeter has the potential to create more opportunities for himself as well as teammates Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who are both going to look to attack Milwaukee defenders off the dribble and get into the paint.

If Milwaukee’s defense closes those attacking lanes quickly, Horford is often in position for a catch-and-shoot attempt which is very much in his wheelhouse.

In the playoffs, Horford is shooting 61.5 percent on catch-and-shoot opportunities which is tops among all playoff centers with as many (3.3) catch-and-shoot attempts per game, as Horford.

His role and its importance has been among the more unexpected revelations with this Celtics team this season.

When Boston re-acquired him via trade from Oklahoma City prior to the start of the season, the thinking was in part that he would be more of a veteran leader in the locker room whose impact on the floor would be at best, minimal.

But the 35-year-old’s play early on was instrumental in Boston’s struggles not being a lot worse. The Celtics were mindful of trying to have him pace himself this season, both sides being strategic in when to give him rest and when he was ready to roll out onto the floor.

“Our medical staff, training staff, had a great plan for me this season,” Horford said. “Pretty much all season, I felt good out there with the goal…trying to be as fresh as I can for the playoffs.”

Their plan worked.

Horford appeared in 69 regular-season games, the most games he has played in since the 2017-2018 season in Boston when he appeared in 68 games.

He averaged 13.0 points in Boston’s first-round series and shot a playoff career-high-tying 58.8 percent from the field and a career-best 60 percent on 3-pointers.

Horford’s ability to score at the rim and from the perimeter will make Antetokounmpo and the rest of the Bucks work a little harder defensively. And that will bode well for Boston and its chances at picking up where they left off following a four-game sweep of the Brooklyn Nets.